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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.