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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."